I'm against UBI on general principles. For the most part, any time that I've seen people literally receive large amounts of money for nothing, the result is addiction, sloth, stupidity, amd just general social decay. Good examples are payouts to Native American tribes, and the citizens of oil rich countries in the Middle East.
The one thing that has recently changed that has made me at least START to rethink my position on it is the potential of AI to be hugely disruptive to the economy. Very soon - as in a matter of a couple years - we'll see whole sectors of the economy automated. These aren't cases like ditch diggers being replaced by backhoes, or buggy manufacturers being replaced by auto manufacturers. We're talking about entire industries very nearly eliminated, with the exception if a few people on top managing things and technically savvy enough to maintain the equipment and software. The food service industry, hospitality, delivery drivers, pilots, construction, mining, maritime industries like fishing and shipping... this is an enormous challenge we will need to face very soon. I honestly don't know what the solution will be but I have absolutely no hope that our so-called leaders in Washington will have the intellectual ability to come up with a solution. All of these people will either need to be able to find other useful professions or they'll need to receive some kind of UBI. Unless you can think if something else? Or do you think I'm overstating how dramatic this will be?
It’s a fair point, but my personal opinion is that your concern is overstated. I don’t expect AI to be nearly as disruptive in the sense you’re describing. Time will tell.
The thing is, we already have a huge number of actually employed people who are really contributing little to nothing to societal flourishing. 35-40% of people surveyed don’t think their job makes a meaningful contribution to the world. Thing is, those aren’t the blue collar workers you’re referring to. They’re mostly white collar workers, in the massive administrative bureaucracy that’s eating the world. And those jobs, such as they are, are the first jobs getting replaced by AI. The lawyers and the accountants have a lot more to worry about than the oilfield workers and the masons.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, I wouldn’t pretend to know. But I do think AI is way more hype than substance when it comes to real world wealth-creating jobs.
I'm against UBI on general principles. For the most part, any time that I've seen people literally receive large amounts of money for nothing, the result is addiction, sloth, stupidity, amd just general social decay. Good examples are payouts to Native American tribes, and the citizens of oil rich countries in the Middle East.
The one thing that has recently changed that has made me at least START to rethink my position on it is the potential of AI to be hugely disruptive to the economy. Very soon - as in a matter of a couple years - we'll see whole sectors of the economy automated. These aren't cases like ditch diggers being replaced by backhoes, or buggy manufacturers being replaced by auto manufacturers. We're talking about entire industries very nearly eliminated, with the exception if a few people on top managing things and technically savvy enough to maintain the equipment and software. The food service industry, hospitality, delivery drivers, pilots, construction, mining, maritime industries like fishing and shipping... this is an enormous challenge we will need to face very soon. I honestly don't know what the solution will be but I have absolutely no hope that our so-called leaders in Washington will have the intellectual ability to come up with a solution. All of these people will either need to be able to find other useful professions or they'll need to receive some kind of UBI. Unless you can think if something else? Or do you think I'm overstating how dramatic this will be?
It’s a fair point, but my personal opinion is that your concern is overstated. I don’t expect AI to be nearly as disruptive in the sense you’re describing. Time will tell.
The thing is, we already have a huge number of actually employed people who are really contributing little to nothing to societal flourishing. 35-40% of people surveyed don’t think their job makes a meaningful contribution to the world. Thing is, those aren’t the blue collar workers you’re referring to. They’re mostly white collar workers, in the massive administrative bureaucracy that’s eating the world. And those jobs, such as they are, are the first jobs getting replaced by AI. The lawyers and the accountants have a lot more to worry about than the oilfield workers and the masons.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, I wouldn’t pretend to know. But I do think AI is way more hype than substance when it comes to real world wealth-creating jobs.
Great article